The Haynesville is set to become the largest source of gas output growth in the US, forecast to add about 10 Bcfd from 2020 to 2035, growing by 86% during that timeframe. The region is forecast to account for about 21% of the country’s gas production in 2035, compared to 13% in 2020.
It remains poised to see a production growth of 5 Bcfd or more over the next five years based on a conservative level of drilling on the back of robust permitting activity, an expanding inventory of commercial locations that includes East Texas and the mid-Bossier and improving 2-month initial production results, Rystad Energy estimates.
A key factor in Haynesville’s ability to sustain an advantage against the Appalachian region will be to maintain the relative ease with which operators can transport gas from wellheads to Gulf coast markets, compared to the bottlenecks and mid-stream project cancellations that producers in the Northeast have to grapple with.
Our analysis on Haynesville’s current and planned takeaway capacity concludes that the basin has the capacity to sustain the forecast production growth up to 2024, the year when potential bottlenecks could start, unless new pipeline projects get approved.
As Haynesville’s second growth phase began and operators returned to the previous record production numbers from the first boom in late-2019, the system touched the key 90% level of utilization, above which it may come under strain with bottlenecks occurring. The LEAP, Index 99, and the CJ Express pipelines have since alleviated these potential strains, with utilization rates currently back near 70%.
Our analysis visualizes several different scenarios that the system may face over the coming years. Under a scenario in which all new projects are approved, constructed, and are brought online, and the Mid-Con stays at its currently forecast low levels, the system will stay at a level comfortably under 90% well into the medium term, providing sufficient capacity for a booming third growth phase.
Rystad Energy – Apr 25, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT